Subject: European Business Weekly | 3 March 2026
From: "European Business Weekly" <[email-masked]>
To: "Info - RAM" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 17:57:38 +0200

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3 March 2026

EU-UKRAINE BUSINESS SUMMIT: SAVE THE DATE!

Organised by European Business Summits and the European Commission, together 
with the governments of Ukraine and Poland, the third edition of the 
EU-Ukraine Business Summit will happen on 22 & 23 April 2026.

The Summit will explore how Europe and Ukraine can deepen economic 
cooperation, mobilise investment for reconstruction, and advance reforms 
that strengthen Ukraine’s business environment and long-term resilience.

Stay tuned to discover the programme highlights and speakers.

Register here 
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This week's highlights

*	EU Scrambles for Unity as Iran War Spreads
*	Oil Jumps as Iran War Threatens the Hormuz Chokepoint
*	Kremlin Sees Profit in Hormuz Shock
*	Von der Leyen Bets on One Market Fix to Close the US China Gap
*	Von der Leyen Fast Tracks Mercosur, Leaving Paris Fuming
*	EU Prosecutor Flags €67 Billion Fraud Risk and Seeks More Power
*	French Trade Minister Says Trump Tariffs Should Shock EU Into Reform

EU Scrambles for Unity as Iran War Spreads
The EU rushed into crisis management after two days of US and Israeli 
strikes on Iran killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggered 
Iranian missile attacks on US bases across the Gulf. Commission President 
Ursula von der Leyen convenes an emergency security meeting in Brussels as 
ministers struggle to agree a common line. A joint statement after a two and 
a half hour call urged respect for international law, demanded Iran halt 
missile development, and backed the Iranian people’s fundamental freedoms, 
but diplomats said wording was contentious and Hungary initially withheld 
support. France, Germany and the United Kingdom issued a tougher warning 
that they could support defensive action to stop Iranian missile and drone 
launches.

Cyprus, the closest EU state, has raised threat levels and called an 
Integrated Political Crisis Response meeting on Tuesday to assess security, 
trade and energy impacts. Officials also fear disruption to air and maritime 
traffic if the Strait of Hormuz closes, a route for about 20 percent of 
global oil flows. The crisis tests EU leverage in a region where it has 
limited tools.
Oil Jumps as Iran War Threatens the Hormuz Chokepoint
Oil prices climbed as investors priced in supply risk from the US and 
Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation across the region. US 
benchmark crude initially jumped about 8 percent and later traded 5.9 
percent higher at $71.00 a barrel. Brent rose 6.2 percent to $77.38. The key 
fear is disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow exit of the 
Persian Gulf. Analysts note that roughly one fifth of global oil and LNG 
flows move through the channel, and attacks have hit vessels transiting the 
area. A prolonged conflict could lift costs across the global economy 
because energy is an input to most production.

Iran exports about 1.6 million barrels a day, mostly to China. If those 
flows stall, Beijing may need alternative supplies. Some analysts argue 
China could buffer a shortfall using reserves of up to 1.5 billion barrels 
and by buying more from Russia, but markets are bracing for volatility. Risk 
sentiment shifted broadly. Gold rose 2.4 percent to about $5,371 an ounce, 
while US equity futures fell around 0.8 percent and Asian stock markets 
opened lower.
Kremlin Sees Profit in Hormuz Shock
Russia has condemned the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali 
Khamenei, but Moscow is openly welcoming the market turmoil triggered by the 
US Israeli campaign. With the Strait of Hormuz now closed, officials and pro 
Kremlin commentators are betting that a sharp rise in crude prices will 
refill the Kremlin’s war chest as it enters a fifth year fighting Ukraine.

Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted that oil could soon reach above $100 a 
barrel. Brent was around $73 and US benchmark WTI about $67 when the comment 
appeared. State propagandist Vladimir Solovyov told viewers the strike on 
Iran was “a big plus” for Russia’s budget, while military bloggers 
celebrated the prospect of higher export revenues. The windfall could widen 
if major buyers such as China and India scramble for alternative supplies. 
Trump’s takeover of Venezuela’s oil also tightens the market, potentially 
pushing importers toward Russian barrels. Russia’s foreign ministry warned 
that Hormuz disruption could unbalance global oil and gas markets, even as 
Putin called Khamenei’s death a cynical murder.
Von der Leyen Bets on One Market Fix to Close the US China Gap
The Commission’s “One Europe, One Market” roadmap aims to turn the EU’s 
fragmented single market into a unified engine of growth by end 2027. Ursula 
von der Leyen says internal barriers leave firms trapped in a market of 27 
and slow Europe’s response to US and Chinese competition. The strategy 
echoes warnings from Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi that Europe needs far 
larger investment to stay competitive in defense, green tech and advanced 
digital sectors.

Brussels plans a mix of deregulation and integration across five pillars: 
simplification, deeper market rules, trade, digital and energy. It wants 
more uniform rules through regulations rather than directives, backed by 
omnibus packages that aim to cut compliance costs by about €15 billion a 
year. A flagship proposal is the optional “28th regime” corporate form, 
intended to let companies register online within 48 hours and scale across 
borders. The roadmap also prioritizes a Savings and Investment Union to 
channel household savings into EU firms, a grid modernization package, and 
new digital and chips initiatives. Leaders are expected to endorse timelines 
at the March European Council.
Von der Leyen Fast Tracks Mercosur, Leaving Paris Fuming
Ursula von der Leyen has decided to provisionally apply the EU Mercosur 
trade deal, betting speed matters more than French objections as Emmanuel 
Macron approaches the end of his term. The move comes even though the 
European Parliament voted to send the accord to the EU Court of Justice, a 
step that could freeze final ratification for up to two years. French 
ministers and lawmakers denounced the decision, and French officials said 
Paris was not warned.

Von der Leyen argues she consulted widely and that a majority of member 
states want early gains from a pact linking the EU with Argentina, Brazil, 
Paraguay and Uruguay in a free trade area of about 720 million people. 
Argentina and Uruguay ratified the agreement on Thursday, enabling the 
Commission to activate it once remaining Mercosur approvals are completed. 
The gamble carries risks. Moving ahead while judicial review is pending may 
harden resistance among lawmakers whose final consent is still required. It 
also signals a shift in EU power politics, with Paris struggling to block 
trade moves as transatlantic and China related tensions rise.
EU Prosecutor Flags €67 Billion Fraud Risk and Seeks More Power
The European Public Prosecutor’s Office says it is probing suspected fraud 
and other financial crimes worth an estimated €67 billion and is urging 
stronger powers as the EU debates a long term budget. In its 2025 annual 
report, EPPO said case numbers rose 35 percent, reflecting cross border 
networks exploiting EU spending. Chief prosecutor Laura Kövesi highlighted 
981 ongoing VAT and customs fraud cases worth €45 billion in damage to EU 
and national budgets. EPPO processed 6,966 crime reports last year, up 6 
percent, largely from citizens and national authorities. EU institutions 
filed only 143 complaints, which prosecutors cite as a weak point in the 
control chain.

Recovering money remains slow and opaque. Assets must be frozen and 
confiscated through national courts, and data on what ultimately returns to 
the EU budget is limited. The European Court of Auditors has warned the 
Commission lacks effective tools to track reallocations. EPPO points to 
occasional successes, such as a €40 million recovery in an Italian VAT case, 
but argues it needs clearer mandates and better reporting to turn 
investigations into deterrence.
French Trade Minister Says Trump Tariffs Should Shock EU Into Reform
France’s trade minister Nicolas Forissier says Europe should stop reacting 
with anger to Donald Trump’s tariff threats and instead treat them as a 
warning to fix its competitiveness gap. He argues Washington’s logic 
predates Trump and is forcing the EU to step out of a comfort zone that 
tolerated slow decisions, regulation and underinvestment.

The comments come after the US Supreme Court struck down the “reciprocal 
tariffs” that underpinned the Turnberry trade truce signed last July. 
Forissier said the European Parliament’s pause on implementing the deal is 
reasonable until the United States clarifies what it will do next, after US 
Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signaled tariffs could return through 
other legal tools. Forissier wants the Turnberry baseline to hold, with a 15 
percent tariff on most EU exports and exemptions for aircraft and 
pharmaceuticals, but he also wants further talks to widen carve outs. He 
points to capital markets integration as essential to financing the 
investment effort outlined by Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta. His closing 
point is blunt: a 15 percent tariff on French spirits helps nobody, 
including American consumers.
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